Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-11-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.4%

VGK: 47.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.04

VGK: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	27	5	84.4%	3.60	4	-1.40
VGK	L. Thompson	46	42	4	91.3%	4.48	3	0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	1	1.29
1	VGK	17	1	1.26
2	OTT	25	1	2.32
2	VGK	12	2	1.22
3	OTT	15	1	0.87
3	VGK	14	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2