Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-11-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

WPG: 53.8%

MTL: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.35

MTL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	20	2	90.9%	2.69	3	0.69
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	33	3	91.7%	3.96	1	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	1.20
1	MTL	10	0	0.60
2	WPG	18	1	1.46
2	MTL	14	3	1.58
3	WPG	15	0	1.02
3	MTL	7	0	0.46
4	WPG	3	0	0.28
4	MTL	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2