Arizona Coyotes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 64.7%

ARI: 35.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.89

ARI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

WSH

D. Kuemper

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	26	23	3	88.5%	3.04	2	0.04
ARI	K. Vejmelka	36	34	2	94.4%	3.30	2	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs ARI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-03	WSH 2 - 5 ARI	ARI	WSH
2023-12-04	ARI 6 - 0 WSH	ARI	ARI
2023-01-19	ARI 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	ARI
2022-11-05	WSH 2 - 3 ARI	ARI	WSH
2022-04-22	ARI 0 - 2 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	21	0	1.44
1	ARI	13	0	0.97
2	WSH	13	1	1.05
2	ARI	11	0	0.74
3	WSH	18	1	0.80
3	ARI	13	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9