Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 59.2%

BOS: 40.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.25

BOS: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

I. Samsonov

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	21	20	1	95.2%	1.45	1	0.45
BOS	L. Ullmark	28	26	2	92.9%	2.33	1	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TOR at home vs BOS: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.80
1	BOS	10	0	0.18
2	TOR	19	0	1.08
2	BOS	9	1	0.65
3	TOR	5	0	0.45
3	BOS	14	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2