Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 66.0%

PHI: 34.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.46

PHI: 2.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

C. Talbot

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	28	26	2	92.9%	2.17	0	0.17
PHI	C. Hart	34	33	1	97.1%	4.33	3	3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs PHI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	1	1.53
1	PHI	10	0	0.54
2	OTT	12	0	1.10
2	PHI	22	0	1.33
3	OTT	22	2	1.71
3	PHI	6	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.1