Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 57.3%

SEA: 42.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.16

SEA: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

SEA

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	25	3	89.3%	2.76	1	-0.24
SEA	M. Jones	37	35	2	94.6%	3.41	0	1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs SEA: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	SEA 3 - 6 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-22	PIT 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	PIT
2025-01-25	SEA 4 - 1 PIT	SEA	SEA
2025-01-14	PIT 2 - 4 SEA	SEA	PIT
2024-02-29	SEA 2 - 0 PIT	SEA	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	0.71
1	SEA	11	0	0.52
2	PIT	25	0	1.74
2	SEA	16	0	0.76
3	PIT	16	0	0.96
3	SEA	11	1	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8