Calgary Flames at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-11-07 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 44.8%

CGY: 55.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.10

CGY: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	46	43	3	93.5%	4.20	4	1.20
CGY	J. Markstrom	32	28	4	87.5%	3.04	0	-0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	CGY
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	7	0	0.48
1	CGY	22	2	1.66
2	NYI	13	0	0.78
2	CGY	16	0	0.63
3	NYI	21	0	1.45
3	CGY	12	0	0.77
4	NYI	2	0	0.33
4	CGY	5	2	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2