St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-11-07 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 41.6%

STL: 58.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.60

STL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

L. Ullmark

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	27	26	1	96.3%	2.70	1	1.70
STL	Jordan Binnington	37	34	3	91.9%	3.19	3	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • BOS at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	STL 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	STL
2025-12-04	BOS 5 - 2 STL	BOS	STL
2024-11-16	BOS 2 - 3 STL	STL	BOS
2024-11-12	STL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-03-11	BOS 1 - 5 STL	STL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	1	0.78
1	STL	8	0	0.50
2	BOS	15	0	0.89
2	STL	13	1	1.08
3	BOS	18	2	1.52
3	STL	15	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2