Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.8%

EDM: 52.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.06

EDM: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	29	25	4	86.2%	3.07	1	-0.93
EDM	Stuart Skinner	31	26	5	83.9%	3.32	2	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs EDM: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	WSH
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	EDM
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	0.94
1	EDM	13	0	0.73
2	WSH	18	1	1.40
2	EDM	11	0	0.64
3	WSH	10	1	0.98
3	EDM	19	1	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4