New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 71.3%

NYI: 28.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.84

NYI: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	22	4	84.6%	2.44	3	-1.56
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	40	37	3	92.5%	3.94	3	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYR at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	17	2	1.47
1	NYI	16	2	1.30
2	NYR	22	0	1.41
2	NYI	10	1	0.60
3	NYR	13	1	1.06
3	NYI	9	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7