St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 1 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 44.3%

STL: 55.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.54

STL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	28	27	1	96.4%	2.68	2	1.68
STL	T. Greiss	35	30	5	85.7%	2.30	0	-2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	25	0	1.21
1	STL	14	0	0.53
2	PHI	11	0	0.61
2	STL	15	0	1.00
3	PHI	12	0	0.48
3	STL	18	2	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.5 - 3.1