Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.3%

VGK: 46.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.13

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

E. Kallgren

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	20	16	4	80.0%	2.95	0	-1.05
VGK	L. Thompson	31	28	3	90.3%	3.37	2	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	1.18
1	VGK	13	0	1.09
2	TOR	20	1	1.56
2	VGK	10	0	0.99
3	TOR	11	0	0.63
3	VGK	9	0	0.74
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3