Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 60.1%

EDM: 39.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.33

EDM: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	26	3	89.7%	3.66	1	0.66
EDM	Jack Campbell	37	35	2	94.6%	3.01	2	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.23
1	EDM	8	0	0.67
2	TBL	7	0	0.42
2	EDM	15	0	1.48
3	TBL	21	1	1.37
3	EDM	13	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0