Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 40.2%

PIT: 59.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.82

PIT: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

WSH

D. Kuemper

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	28	24	4	85.7%	3.50	2	-0.50
PIT	C. DeSmith	25	24	1	96.0%	2.47	2	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs PIT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.94
1	PIT	16	0	0.99
2	WSH	14	0	0.85
2	PIT	13	1	0.84
3	WSH	14	1	0.67
3	PIT	12	1	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3