Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

MTL: 58.4%

VAN: 41.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.97

VAN: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 55%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	33	31	2	93.9%	2.56	1	0.56
VAN	Thatcher Demko	29	24	5	82.8%	2.25	1	-2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	VAN
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.53
1	VAN	9	0	0.49
2	MTL	15	1	1.20
2	VAN	13	1	1.24
3	MTL	7	0	0.52
3	VAN	22	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9