Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-11-10 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

BOS: 52.6%

CGY: 47.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.92

CGY: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 49%

BOS

L. Ullmark

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	32	31	1	96.9%	2.45	0	1.45
CGY	Dan Vladar	28	25	3	89.3%	3.65	2	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	1	1.40
1	CGY	19	0	0.45
2	BOS	13	0	0.82
2	CGY	13	0	0.96
3	BOS	11	1	1.44
3	CGY	17	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9