San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-11-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 68.5%

SJS: 31.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.19

SJS: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	18	13	5	72.2%	2.88	5	-2.12
SJS	J. Reimer	29	25	4	86.2%	3.48	4	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs SJS: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	2	0.96
1	SJS	13	4	1.51
2	DAL	19	0	0.74
2	SJS	5	0	0.29
3	DAL	21	2	1.79
3	SJS	6	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7