Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

Win Probability

MTL: 57.6%

PIT: 42.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.08

PIT: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	24	20	4	83.3%	2.64	1	-1.36
PIT	Tristan Jarry	42	37	5	88.1%	2.84	2	-2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.30
1	PIT	9	0	0.36
2	MTL	23	0	1.57
2	PIT	11	0	0.60
3	MTL	14	2	0.75
3	PIT	18	1	1.54
4	MTL	2	0	0.22
4	PIT	1	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3