Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

TOR: 50.8%

VAN: 49.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.40

VAN: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

E. Kallgren

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	29	27	2	93.1%	2.54	2	0.54
VAN	S. Martin	34	31	3	91.2%	2.94	1	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.86
1	VAN	14	0	0.70
2	TOR	23	1	1.23
2	VAN	13	1	0.97
3	TOR	13	0	0.86
3	VAN	14	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1