St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-11-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 63.0%

STL: 37.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.53

STL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	25	3	89.3%	3.18	2	0.18
STL	Jordan Binnington	36	34	2	94.4%	2.71	0	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs STL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.80
1	STL	5	0	0.30
2	VGK	11	0	0.64
2	STL	22	1	1.99
3	VGK	24	0	1.26
3	STL	8	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0