Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TBL: 53.5%

WSH: 46.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.95

WSH: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	86.4%	2.05	1	-0.95
WSH	D. Kuemper	35	29	6	82.9%	4.10	2	-1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.98
1	WSH	10	0	0.49
2	TBL	14	0	0.76
2	WSH	6	1	0.49
3	TBL	22	2	2.36
3	WSH	18	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9