New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-11-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 56.4%

NYI: 43.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.14

NYI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

OTT

C. Talbot

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	35	31	4	88.6%	2.61	2	-1.39
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	38	36	2	94.7%	3.97	0	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NYI: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	0	1.03
1	NYI	14	0	0.55
2	OTT	21	0	1.77
2	NYI	14	0	0.70
3	OTT	18	0	1.16
3	NYI	12	2	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0