San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-11-15 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 63.2%

SJS: 36.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.52

SJS: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

VGK

L. Thompson

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	29	24	5	82.8%	2.18	2	-2.82
SJS	J. Reimer	26	24	2	92.3%	2.53	1	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • VGK at home vs SJS: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	1	1.19
1	SJS	9	0	0.45
2	VGK	13	0	0.77
2	SJS	13	0	0.33
3	VGK	10	0	0.57
3	SJS	15	2	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0