Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-11-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

OTT: 71.0%

BUF: 29.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.24

BUF: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	30	29	1	96.7%	3.02	0	2.02
BUF	E. Comrie	40	36	4	90.0%	5.92	7	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs BUF: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	2	1.95
1	BUF	14	0	1.08
2	OTT	18	0	1.00
2	BUF	12	0	0.99
3	OTT	15	5	2.97
3	BUF	13	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7