Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 60.6%

DAL: 39.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.68

DAL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	23	6	79.3%	3.46	4	-2.54
DAL	S. Wedgewood	44	40	4	90.9%	3.93	4	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • FLA at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	2	1.10
1	DAL	13	2	0.98
2	FLA	17	1	1.27
2	DAL	14	1	0.76
3	FLA	20	1	1.55
3	DAL	12	1	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9