Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-11-19 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 53.6%

CGY: 46.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.60

CGY: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	40	34	6	85.0%	4.68	2	-1.32
CGY	J. Markstrom	40	35	5	87.5%	3.70	1	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	FLA
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	0	0.59
1	CGY	13	0	0.52
2	FLA	18	0	0.95
2	CGY	20	0	0.94
3	FLA	16	0	1.09
3	CGY	15	0	1.03
4	FLA	3	0	0.12
4	CGY	2	0	0.30
5	FLA	5	1	0.95
5	CGY	5	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0