Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TOR: 57.1%

BUF: 42.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.55

BUF: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	34	32	2	94.1%	3.18	0	1.18
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	24	19	5	79.2%	3.41	1	-1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	1.79
1	BUF	11	0	0.95
2	TOR	7	0	0.67
2	BUF	14	0	1.22
3	TOR	11	0	0.94
3	BUF	18	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3