Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-21 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.2%

BOS: 45.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.01

BOS: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	24	5	82.8%	2.78	1	-2.22
BOS	L. Ullmark	35	32	3	91.4%	3.20	1	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.72
1	BOS	8	0	0.67
2	TBL	9	0	0.83
2	BOS	16	0	1.30
3	TBL	21	1	1.65
3	BOS	9	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9