Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-11-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

PHI: 37.6%

CGY: 62.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.93

CGY: 3.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

PHI

C. Hart

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	30	25	5	83.3%	3.18	2	-1.82
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	23	2	92.0%	1.51	1	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	1	0.45
1	CGY	14	0	0.87
2	PHI	8	0	0.43
2	CGY	9	0	0.67
3	PHI	13	0	0.63
3	CGY	18	2	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.7