Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2022-11-21 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 47.2%
OTT: 52.8%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.96
OTT: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
K. Kahkonen
OTT
C. Talbot
| Stat | SJS | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | K. Kahkonen | 38 | 37 | 1 | 97.4% | 3.44 | 4 | 2.44 |
| OTT | C. Talbot | 31 | 26 | 5 | 83.9% | 3.03 | 1 | -1.97 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs OTT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | OTT 7 - 4 SJS | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-22 | SJS 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-01 | OTT 5 - 3 SJS | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-11-27 | SJS 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-03-09 | SJS 2 - 1 OTT | SJS | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 4 | 0 | 0.21 |
| 1 | OTT | 18 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 2 | SJS | 29 | 0 | 2.09 |
| 2 | OTT | 10 | 1 | 1.00 |
| 3 | SJS | 9 | 1 | 0.73 |
| 3 | OTT | 20 | 2 | 1.31 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.0 - 3.4
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