Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Calgary Flames (SO)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.3%

CGY: 49.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.36

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	34	3	91.9%	3.97	2	0.97
CGY	Dan Vladar	43	39	4	90.7%	5.84	4	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	0	0.92
1	CGY	13	0	0.43
2	PIT	16	1	1.12
2	CGY	22	0	0.91
3	PIT	17	0	1.19
3	CGY	9	0	0.65
4	PIT	4	0	0.39
4	CGY	3	0	0.28
5	PIT	4	3	2.22
5	CGY	3	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0