Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 48.5%

EDM: 51.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.35

EDM: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	49	49	0	100.0%	5.30	6	5.30
EDM	Jack Campbell	31	28	3	90.3%	2.10	1	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	1	0.73
1	EDM	13	0	0.78
2	NYI	14	0	0.99
2	EDM	20	3	2.33
3	NYI	9	0	0.38
3	EDM	27	3	2.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1