Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 60.1%

PHI: 39.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

PHI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

D. Kuemper

PHI

F. Sandstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	23	21	2	91.3%	2.11	1	0.11
PHI	F. Sandstrom	32	29	3	90.6%	2.98	1	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.81
1	PHI	13	1	0.84
2	WSH	23	0	0.98
2	PHI	6	0	0.28
3	WSH	7	1	0.87
3	PHI	17	0	0.98
4	WSH	4	0	0.32
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1