Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2022-11-23 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 62.2%
OTT: 37.8%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.36
OTT: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
L. Thompson
OTT
C. Talbot
| Stat | VGK | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | L. Thompson | 40 | 39 | 1 | 97.5% | 3.50 | 3 | 2.50 |
| OTT | C. Talbot | 36 | 32 | 4 | 88.9% | 3.10 | 2 | -0.90 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | OTT 7 - 1 VGK | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-26 | VGK 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | VGK |
| 2024-11-21 | OTT 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-10-25 | VGK 6 - 4 OTT | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-02-24 | OTT 4 - 3 VGK | OTT | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VGK | 16 | 0 | 0.85 |
| 1 | OTT | 20 | 1 | 1.34 |
| 2 | VGK | 19 | 0 | 1.08 |
| 2 | OTT | 18 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 3 | VGK | 11 | 2 | 1.16 |
| 3 | OTT | 21 | 1 | 1.00 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9
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