Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 55.7%

VAN: 44.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.12

VAN: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

P. Francouz

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	25	21	4	84.0%	2.24	1	-1.76
VAN	S. Martin	36	33	3	91.7%	2.95	0	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • COL at home vs VAN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	0	1.07
1	VAN	9	1	0.85
2	COL	17	0	1.21
2	VAN	11	0	0.61
3	COL	14	0	0.68
3	VAN	11	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0