Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 45.5%

CGY: 54.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.96

CGY: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

D. Kuemper

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	32	32	0	100.0%	1.72	0	1.72
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	2.53	0	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WSH	11	0.44
1	CGY	21	1.02
2	WSH	16	0.88
2	CGY	7	0.32
3	WSH	12	1.21
3	CGY	14	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2