Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

Win Probability

CHI: 42.1%

MTL: 57.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.84

MTL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	26	21	5	80.8%	5.31	3	0.31
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	31	4	88.6%	5.03	6	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	1	0.86
1	MTL	10	0	0.81
2	CHI	17	3	1.75
2	MTL	15	0	0.97
3	CHI	11	0	0.57
3	MTL	9	0	0.60
4	CHI	2	0	0.13
4	MTL	3	0	0.15
5	CHI	3	2	1.73
5	MTL	3	3	2.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2