Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 62.2%

TOR: 37.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.23

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	28	24	4	85.7%	2.45	3	-1.55
TOR	Matt Murray	28	25	3	89.3%	2.70	1	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	17	1	1.18
1	TOR	12	1	0.96
2	MIN	11	0	0.79
2	TOR	16	1	0.77
3	MIN	13	0	0.73
3	TOR	10	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8