Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-11-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 67.7%

DAL: 32.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.45

DAL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	42	41	1	97.6%	2.78	0	1.78
DAL	S. Wedgewood	36	32	4	88.9%	2.29	0	-1.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	10	0.55
1	DAL	20	0.61
2	COL	11	0.60
2	DAL	21	1.79
3	COL	19	1.14
3	DAL	7	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8