Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-11-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 46.2%

TOR: 53.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.90

TOR: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	25	21	4	84.0%	1.75	0	-2.25
TOR	Matt Murray	44	42	2	95.5%	2.68	0	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • DET at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	13	0.75
1	TOR	5	0.20
2	DET	17	1.10
2	TOR	17	1.20
3	DET	20	0.83
3	TOR	6	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3