Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-12-01 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 45.7%

TBL: 54.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.02

TBL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

C. Hart

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	27	23	4	85.2%	3.60	4	-0.40
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	21	1	95.5%	1.23	0	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	0.60
1	TBL	18	0	1.32
2	PHI	4	0	0.10
2	TBL	26	4	2.25
3	PHI	11	0	0.53
3	TBL	3	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4