Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-12-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 47.6%

VGK: 52.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.71

VGK: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 55%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	34	3	91.9%	2.94	0	-0.06
VGK	L. Thompson	47	43	4	91.5%	3.79	0	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs VGK: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PIT	19	1.03
1	VGK	21	1.23
2	PIT	22	1.52
2	VGK	13	0.73
3	PIT	15	1.24
3	VGK	20	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4