Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-12-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

EDM: 56.5%

MTL: 43.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.55

MTL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	33	30	3	90.9%	3.05	2	0.05
MTL	J. Allen	22	17	5	77.3%	4.32	4	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • EDM at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.79
1	MTL	16	0	0.82
2	EDM	14	3	2.14
2	MTL	18	2	1.64
3	EDM	8	1	1.39
3	MTL	14	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2