Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-03 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.0%

TOR: 46.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.06

TOR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	36	3	92.3%	4.10	1	1.10
TOR	Matt Murray	33	29	4	87.9%	4.00	1	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	1.12
1	TOR	16	0	1.49
2	TBL	15	0	1.07
2	TOR	22	0	1.83
3	TBL	20	1	1.78
3	TOR	10	1	0.77
4	TBL	1	0	0.02
4	TOR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1