Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-12-05 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

Win Probability

BOS: 47.7%

VGK: 52.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

VGK: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	24	4	85.7%	3.55	2	-0.45
VGK	L. Thompson	46	43	3	93.5%	4.31	3	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BOS at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	0	0.86
1	VGK	12	0	0.79
2	BOS	19	2	1.25
2	VGK	9	0	0.75
3	BOS	20	1	1.34
3	VGK	14	0	0.55
4	BOS	8	0	0.53
4	VGK	1	1	0.49
5	BOS	5	0	0.32
5	VGK	5	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3