Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

CGY: 69.5%

ARI: 30.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.72

ARI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	20	18	2	90.0%	2.46	2	0.46
ARI	K. Vejmelka	27	24	3	88.9%	3.19	2	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CGY at home vs ARI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-14	CGY 6 - 5 ARI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-16	CGY 3 - 2 ARI	CGY	ARI
2024-01-11	ARI 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY
2023-03-14	ARI 4 - 3 CGY	ARI	CGY
2023-02-22	ARI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.57
1	ARI	10	1	1.19
2	CGY	17	1	1.51
2	ARI	11	0	0.66
3	CGY	7	1	1.12
3	ARI	9	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9