Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-12-07 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PHI: 46.3%

WSH: 53.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.86

WSH: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

C. Hart

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	27	23	4	85.2%	4.23	4	0.23
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	30	29	1	96.7%	2.40	0	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PHI at home vs WSH: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.83
1	WSH	9	1	1.02
2	PHI	16	0	0.69
2	WSH	18	1	1.42
3	PHI	18	0	0.88
3	WSH	11	2	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3