Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-07 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 49.6%

MIN: 50.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.09

MIN: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	28	25	3	89.3%	3.01	3	0.01
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	27	22	5	81.5%	3.90	5	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • CGY at home vs MIN: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	CGY
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.37
1	MIN	11	1	0.89
2	CGY	15	1	1.32
2	MIN	14	2	1.36
3	CGY	16	4	2.21
3	MIN	16	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2