Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.3%

OTT: 50.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.47

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	28	3	90.3%	3.67	5	0.67
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	28	4	87.5%	3.45	3	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • DAL at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.64
1	OTT	23	2	1.80
2	DAL	10	0	0.71
2	OTT	19	3	1.42
3	DAL	17	2	1.44
3	OTT	4	0	0.29
4	DAL	5	1	0.66
4	OTT	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2