New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-09 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 New York Rangers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 51.9%

NYR: 48.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.17

NYR: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	31	28	3	90.3%	3.01	4	0.01
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	44	43	1	97.7%	3.32	1	2.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	NYR 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-11-20	COL 6 - 3 NYR	COL	COL
2025-01-26	NYR 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-14	COL 3 - 2 NYR	COL	COL
2024-03-28	COL 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.62
1	NYR	11	0	0.31
2	COL	18	0	0.88
2	NYR	16	1	0.74
3	COL	17	1	1.33
3	NYR	8	1	0.41
4	COL	5	0	0.36
4	NYR	2	0	0.07
5	COL	2	0	0.14
5	NYR	2	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0